Bitcoin Steady, but Bitfinex Warns of Downside Risks as U.S. Government Shutdown Looms

The bounce in crypto markets mostly stalled on Tuesday with the U.S. government on track to shut down at midnight Eastern time.

Bitcoin (BTC) — after earlier having slid about 2% from overnight highs near $115,000 - managed a late afternoon rally to $114,300, up marginally from 24 hours ago. Ether (ETH) traded just above $4,100, sliding 1.3% during the same period.

Most tokens in the broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index posted declines, with Avalanche (AVAX), Uniswap (UNI) and Near (NEAR) leading losses.

A check on traditional markets showed gold climbing another 0.5% to $3,850, extending its record-breaking run, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 equity indexes also saw late rallies to move into positive territory just minutes ahead of the close.

Most market participants are in wait-and-see mode as the U.S. government seems headed toward a certain shutdown of uncertain length.

When the government shuts down, all non-essential activities under the executive branch will halt, which will likely include any of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and federal bank regulators' ongoing efforts to create new rules for the crypto industry.

While the shutdown won't have an effect on people's ability to file comments for open rulemaking efforts, it's unlikely anyone at these agencies will be tasked to read the feedback. This halt may also affect ongoing efforts by companies to list and trade exchange-traded funds tied to cryptocurrencies like solana (SOL) and litecoin (LTC), CoinDesk reported earlier Tuesday.

Congress' work on crypto market structure legislation will be delayed. The Senate Banking Committee already postponed a tentatively planned markup — a hearing to debate provisions on the bill — on its market structure draft from Tuesday to later in October. The Senate Agriculture Committee has not published any draft legislation. The Senate Finance Committee, however, still intends to hold a hearing on Wednesday to examine crypto tax issues.

Shutdown leaves BTC fragile, Bitfinex warns

A shutdown would also halt the release of key economic indicators such as jobs data and CPI inflation reports that could amplify volatility across asset classes, including cryptos, Bitfinex analysts warned in a report.

Data delays could complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions with ripple effects echoing across rates markets, the report noted. Global investors have already been cutting U.S. exposure, a trend which a protracted shutdown could accelerate, the report said.

"For markets, the immediate risk is confidence erosion and data blind spots, rather than systemic financial instability," Bitfinex analysts said about the potential shutdown.

Zooming out, BTC is still in a corrective phase since the Fed's interest rate cut in September, which turned out to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news event," Bitfinex analysts said.

The report noted that unlike previous cycles, this one has unfolded in three distinct multi-month surges, each capped by widespread profit-taking.

"At every cyclical peak, more than 90 percent of coins moved were transacted in profit, a clear signal of widespread distribution," the analysts wrote.

Having just stepped back from the third such peak, Bitfinex analysts see probabilities tilting toward further consolidation.

"Deep political polarisation, rising fiscal deficits and a fragile global economy leave markets more sensitive to shocks," they added.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/bitcoin-steady-but-bitfinex-warns-of-downside-risks-as-government-shutdown-looms

Coinbase’s Bitcoin-Backed Loans Surpass $1B as Exchange Prepares to Lift Borrowing Cap

Coinbase (COIN) said its bitcoin-backed loan program has surpassed $1 billion in originations since launching in January, underscoring growing demand for crypto as collateral.

The exchange currently offers retail customers in the U.S. the ability to borrow cash against bitcoin (BTC) holdings through the on-chain Morpho platform. A spokesperson said the average loan size sits at $54,000 but noted the firm plans to raise its borrowing cap from $1 million to $5 million in the coming weeks.

“We do see some users borrowing up against the current $1 [million] loan limit, and are excited to meet their needs, as well,” the spokesperson said. “We work closely with the Morpho team to ensure that we maintain steady liquidity in the onchain loan protocol as we roll out to more customers with larger loans.”

The product caters to customers looking to access cash without selling their bitcoin, a use case that mirrors how homeowners tap equity or how businesses leverage equipment. Coinbase said top applications include debt consolidation, covering large unexpected expenses such as medical bills or taxes, investing in real estate, and making high-cost purchases.

The move comes as the asset-based lending industry continues to expand. A July report projected the market could reach $1.3 trillion by 2030, reflecting broader interest in loans secured by assets beyond traditional real estate or vehicles.

By pushing the ceiling higher, Coinbase is positioning itself to serve wealthier clients and investors who may want to borrow against larger bitcoin holdings.

The milestone highlights the steady integration of crypto into conventional financial practices.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/coinbase-s-bitcoin-backed-loans-surpass-usd1b-as-exchange-prepares-to-lift-borrowing-cap

SUI Declines 3% as $144M Token Unlock Spurs Selloff

SUI, the native token of the Sui network, fell 3.3% over the past 24 hours, slipping from $3.32 to $3.21 as traders hit the sell button.

The token broke through its $3.26 support late in the session, a move that confirmed downward momentum and brought the asset closer to the $3.20 psychological threshold, CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model found.

The move came as the broader crypto market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, fell about 2% over the past 24 hours.

Volume data underscored the selling conviction. Transactions spiked well above the daily average of 6.9 million on two occasions, suggesting coordinated exits by large holders.

The pressure comes as SUI Corporation begins a $143.9 million token unlock, releasing 44 million tokens between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6. This is one of the largest scheduled distributions in a week, which will see more than $773 million worth of cryptocurrency vesting events. Similar unlocks from projects like Ethena ($126.8 million), Eigen ($68.6 million), and Optimism ($21.3 million) are weighing on sentiment across the sector.

For traders, the concern is twofold: technical weakness and fresh supply. Even if demand stays flat, the extra supply can pressure prices lower, forcing difficult allocation decisions.

With altcoins broadly under pressure, the next test for SUI will be whether buyers defend the $3.20 level or allow further downside as the unlock cycle continues.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/sui-declines-3-as-usd144m-token-unlock-spurs-selloff

SWIFT to Develop Blockchain-Based Ledger for 24/7 Cross-Border Payments

Global traditional finance (TradFi) payments system SWIFT said it is adding a blockchain-based ledger to its network.

SWIFT is working with a group of over 30 financial institutions to build a ledger that could make cross-border payments 24/7, based on a prototype by Ethereum developers Consensys, according to an announcement on Monday.

"The ledger will extend SWIFT's financial communication role into a digital environment, facilitating banks' movement of regulated tokenized value across digital ecosystems," SWIFT said.

SWIFT is a messaging system that supports international bank transactions and is used by more than 11,000 financial institutions across over 200 countries.

Facing suggestions that it could be made obsolete by adoption of digital assets, particularly stablecoins, SWIFT has been experimenting with blockchain technology and tokenization for several years to try and get on the front foot against this potential disruption.

SWIFT said it envisages that the ledger will act as a real-time log of transactions between financial institutions, record, sequencing and validating transactions and enforcing its rules through smart contracts.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/29/swift-to-develop-blockchain-based-ledger-for-24-7-cross-border-payments

Maple Finance to Tie Into Elwood to Bring Institutional Credit Strategies On-Chain

Crypto credit firm Maple Finance and Elwood Technologies are joining forces to make it easier for large financial institutions to enter digital asset credit markets. The companies announced Monday that Maple’s on-chain lending and asset management platform will link up with Elwood’s execution, portfolio management, and risk tools.

Maple, founded in 2021, specializes in structured lending products and yield strategies built on public blockchains. Elwood, the trading company backed by hedge-fund manager Alan Howard, provides connectivity to global crypto exchanges, custodians and fund administrators, along with analytics and risk monitoring tools for institutional investors.

The collaboration targets a key friction point for traditional players. Banks and asset managers looking to diversify into digital assets face fragmented infrastructure and operational hurdles. By combining Maple’s lending expertise with Elwood’s institutional trading and risk systems, the firms aim to create a framework that mirrors what professional investors expect in traditional markets.

Sid Powell, Maple’s CEO, said the partnership will extend “institutional-grade” access to on-chain credit opportunities. Elwood CEO Chris Lawn added that credit markets are an essential piece of crypto’s evolution and need the same type of infrastructure as other asset classes.

The move comes as demand for tokenized credit and fixed-income products grows. For example, Ripple and Credbull recently launched initiatives that bring U.S. Treasuries and private credit onto blockchain rails. Maple and Elwood’s tie-up underscores how service providers are trying to position themselves as gateways for institutional capital entering the decentralized economy.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/29/maple-finance-to-tie-into-elwood-to-bring-institutional-credit-strategies-on-chain

From SPACs to Cash-Flow Buys: How DATs Are Plotting the Next Growth Phase

The world of Digital Asset Treasury (DATs) has entered a new era, after Strive (ASST) announced an all-stock deal to acquire Semler Scientific (SMLR) this week.

The deal marked the first merger of two publicly traded bitcoin treasuries, and according to a Wall Street banker familiar with the situation, this is just the start of a massive consolidation wave among the DATs.

The banker, who opted to remain anonymous, outlined three scenarios for how DATS may evolve.

Mergers to add more BTC

The first of the three paths is the DAT-to-DAT mergers.

Strive’s acquisition of Semler is the first clear example of unifying BTC holdings, boosting bitcoin per share, and establishing governance under one roof, the banker said.

When it closes, the deal will create a new company that will hold nearly 11,000 BTC after Strive’s simultaneous $675 million purchase of 5,885 coins.

It's worth noting that Semler’s shares had been trading below the value of its bitcoin, effectively assigning negative value to its medical device business. For Strive, the acquisition consolidates balance sheets, adds BTC scale, and pushes forward a key company metric: Bitcoin per share.

“Strive’s merger announcement is accretive in bitcoin per share, meeting our short-term goal,” CEO Matt Cole wrote on X.

“We believe the combined power of the entities will give the combined company more ability to access the capital markets in a way that will drive increased bitcoin per share and accretion in a way neither could do on their own.”

With the bitcoin treasury market being saturated with many publicly traded companies, this strategy is likely to be one of the most efficient ways to grow for the DATs.

The cash-flow angle

The banker said the second path of evolution is acquiring cash-flowing businesses to offset dilution and fund ongoing BTC purchases.

Metaplanet, Japan’s largest bitcoin holder, has already said it will use its treasury to buy cash-generating businesses as part of its “phase two” strategy.

Metaplanet is also exploring the use of perpetual preferred stock, a financing strategy that Strategy (MSTR) has already employed, allowing it to buy bitcoin without diluting shareholders through at-the-market (ATM) common stock offerings.

No more SPACs

Third, is merging with legitimate businesses instead of using special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), according to the banker.

SPACs are shell firms designed to take companies public quickly, but the “de-SPAC” process can be messy, requiring shareholder votes, regulatory filings, and often suffering from investor redemptions. Making things more complex, to bridge funding gaps, many SPACs rely on PIPEs (private investments in public equity), which bring dilution, discounts and uncertainty.

For DATs, merging directly with a company that already has operations and governance avoids these pitfalls.

The evolution of DATs

The bottom line is that DATs are at a point where they need to evolve and get creative with their growth strategies.

In fact, other companies are already catching on to this trend. Recently, FRNT Financial (TSXV: FRNT), a digital asset investment bank, said it has entered into a consulting agreement with an undisclosed DAT with $100 million worth of digital assets in its balance sheet.

According to the deal terms, FRNT will help evaluate and structure lending opportunities for the company's next growth phase.

The deals, such as the Strive-Semler merger, show digital asset treasury companies will need to scale through consolidation, buy profitable businesses, or align with established operators that bring legitimacy, ushering in the next phase of DATs' evolution.

Read more: Semler Scientific Still Has Nearly 170% Upside After Strive Buyout Deal: Benchmark

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/28/from-spacs-to-cash-flow-buys-how-dats-are-plotting-the-next-growth-phase

Crypto Treasury Firms Could Become Long-Term Giants like Berkshire Hathaway, Analyst Says

Crypto treasury firms that stockpile tokens could evolve from speculative wrappers into long-run economic engines for blockchains, argues Syncracy Capital co-founder Ryan Watkins.

Digital asset treasury (DAT) firms are publicly traded companies that raise capital to acquire and manage crypto on their balance sheets.

In a Sept. 23 blog post and an accompanying thread on X, Watkins said DATs already hold roughly $105 billion in assets across bitcoin, ether and other majors, a scale that few market participants have fully considered.

His core claim: a small number of these firms may mature into durable operators that help finance, govern and build within the networks whose tokens they hold.

Beyond speculation

Watkins said most attention has fixated on near-term trading dynamics — premiums to net asset value, fundraising announcements and “what’s the next token”—which misses the larger arc.

“We imagine select DATs becoming for-profit, publicly traded counterparts to crypto foundations, but with broader mandates to deploy capital, operate businesses, and participate in governance,” he wrote.

Because some DATs already control meaningful slices of token supply, their treasuries can be more than vaults; they can be policy and product levers inside ecosystems.

He pointed to crypto-native examples where scale matters: on Solana, RPC providers and proprietary market makers that stake more SOL can improve transaction landing and spread capture; on Hyperliquid, front ends that stake more HYPE can lower user fees or increase take rates without raising costs.

Access to large, permanent pools of native assets can help such businesses bootstrap and scale, he said.

Programmable money, productive balance sheets

Watkins contrasted these plays with MicroStrategy’s bitcoin-only strategy, which is largely about capital structure around a non-programmable asset.

He went on to say that by comparison, tokens on smart contract platforms — ETH, SOL, HYPE — are programmable and can be put to work on-chain.

DATs holding them can stake for fees, supply liquidity, lend, participate in governance and acquire “ecosystem primitives” such as validators, RPC nodes or indexers, turning treasuries into yield-generating balance sheets.

Structurally, he likened winning DATs to a hybrid of familiar models: the permanent capital of closed-end funds and REITs, the balance-sheet orientation of banks, and the compounding ethos of Berkshire Hathaway.

What makes them distinct, he said, is that returns accrue in crypto per share rather than via management fees, making the vehicles closer to pure plays on underlying networks than to traditional asset managers.

He argued that tools like common equity, convertibles and preferreds give DATs flexible funding to expand balance sheets, while on-chain yields can help manage that funding over time.

Winners—and risks

Watkins cautioned that “not all DATs will make it.”

He expects many first-generation vehicles—those heavy on financial engineering and light on operating substance — to fade as conditions normalize. As competition intensifies, he anticipates consolidation, experiments with more exotic financing and, at times, reckless balance-sheet moves if premiums flip to discounts and pressure builds.

In his view, the survivors will be those that pair disciplined capital allocation with operating chops, recycling cash flows into token accumulation, product building and ecosystem expansion. “Over time, the best managed ones could evolve into the Berkshire Hathaways of their blockchains,” he wrote.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/27/crypto-treasury-firms-could-become-long-term-giants-like-berkshire-hathaway-analyst-says

Bitcoin Trails Equities, Metals, and USD in Q3. Here Is a Key Level to Watch for Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) just ended what is historically the largest cryptocurrency's third-worst week of the year with a greater-than-average drop of 5%. Week 38 effectively closes out the third quarter, which is up about 1%, as well as September, which has managed to hold flat.

While the figures are consistent with the period's historical reputation as one of the weakest seasons of the year, a few catalysts might have contributed to the underperformance.

On Friday, more than $17 billion in options expired, with the max pain price — the strike price at which option holders lose the most money and options writers profit the most — sitting at $110,000, which acted as a gravitational center for the spot price.

A key technical factor remains the short-term holder cost basis at $110,775, which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins that moved in the past six months.

Bitcoin tested this level in August, and in bull markets, it typically moves toward this line multiple times. This year, it broke significantly below that level only once: during the tariff tantrum in April, when it dropped to as low as $74,500.

Zooming out, it is important to assess whether bitcoin remains in an uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows to get an idea of whether the rally is sustainable.

Analyst Caleb Franzen highlights that bitcoin has slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), with the 200-day EMA sitting at $106,186. The previous significant low was around $107,252 on Sept. 1, and for the broader trend to remain intact, bitcoin will need to hold above that level.,

Macro Backdrop

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.8% in the second quarter, well above the 3.3% estimate and the strongest performance since the second quarter of 2023. Initial jobless claims dropped by 14,000 to 218,000, coming in below expectations and marking the lowest level since mid-July. While spending data came in line with the market's expectation. The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation that excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in August 2025 from the prior month.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries bounced off the 4% support, and is now trading near 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) continues to hover around long-term support at 98. Meanwhile, metals are leading the action, with silver at around $45 approaching an all-time high at levels last seen in 1980 and 2011. U.S. equities, in the meantime, are just shy of their records.

Bitcoin remains the outlier at more than 10% below its peak.

Bitcoin-Exposed Equities

Bitcoin treasury companies continue to face severe multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) compression. Strategy (MSTR) is barely positive year-to-date. At one point, it dipped below $300, a negative return for 2025.

The ratio between Strategy and BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stands at 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, which shows just how much the largest bitcoin treasury company has underperformed bitcoin over the past 12 months.

Strategy’s enterprise mNAV is currently 1.44 (as of Friday). Enterprise value here accounts for all basic shares outstanding, total notional debt and total notional value of perpetual preferred stock minus the company’s cash balance.

The silver lining for MSTR is that three of the four perpetual preferred stocks, STRK, STRC and STRF, are all sporting positive lifetime returns as Executive Chairman Michael Saylor looks to buy more BTC through these vehicles.

A growing issue for MSTR is the lack of volatility in bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's Implied volatility — a measure of the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations — has dropped below 40, the lowest in years.

This matters because Saylor has often framed MSTR as a volatility play on bitcoin. For comparison, MSTR’s implied volatility is at 68. Its annualized standard deviation of daily log returns over the past year was 89%, while over the last 30 days it has fallen to 49%.

For equities, higher volatility often attracts speculators, generates trading opportunities and draws investor attention, so the decline is likely acting as a headwind.

Meantime, the fifth-largest bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet (3350), holds 25,555 BTC and still has roughly $500 million left to deploy from its international offering. Despite this, its share price continues to struggle at 517 yen ($3.45), more than 70% below its all-time high.

Metaplanet’s mNAV has dropped to 1.12, down sharply from 8.44 in June. Its market capitalization now stands at $3.94 billion compared to a bitcoin NAV of $2.9 billion, with an average BTC acquisition cost of $106,065.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/27/bitcoin-trails-equities-metals-and-usd-in-q3-here-is-a-key-level-to-watch-for-next-move

Corporate Clients Hold Up to 15% of Assets on Mercado Bitcoin, Exchange Exec Says

Corporate clients, mainly small and medium enterprises, account for between 10% and 15% of all assets under custody on Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest crypto exchange, according to Daniel Cunha, the firm’s head of corporate development.

“These companies barely move more than 10% of their holdings at any given time,” Cunha told CoinDesk in an interview at the exchange’s DAC 2025 conference. “They’re here to hold, not trade.”

The firms are primarily using bitcoin to protect their cash reserves from global volatility, he said, citing growing concern over inflation, currency devaluation and geopolitical instability.

The trend grew when companies like Strategy (MSTR) started adopting bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset. Strategy now holds 639,835 BTC, making it the world’s largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Publicly-traded companies, as a whole, hold over 1 million BTC, but how much small and medium enterprises hold isn’t known.

Cunha did not reveal the exact figures these companies were holding on Mercado Bitcoin. Brazil has a history of cryptocurrency adoption, ranking fifth in Chainalysis’ Global Crypto Adoption Index, yet it only has one publicly-traded company holding BTC, Méliuz. OranjeBTC is set to soon list on Brazil’s B3 exchange to become the country’s largest publicly traded corporate holder of the cryptocurrency with $400 million in its treasury.

Cunha said these companies aren’t chasing yield or experimenting with altcoins, but rather are focusing on BTC and stablecoins like USDT and USDC to manage their treasuries. These holdings serve conservative, cash-management purposes rather than speculative plays.

The rise in institutional activity is also having a side effect: it’s reducing the overall volatility of crypto markets, Cunha said. That’s making bitcoin a more appealing option for treasurers, even asthe enterprise segment in Brazil is still just starting to adopt crypto.

“The big guys in Faria Lima? They’re on the sidelines,” he said, referring to the financial district in Brazil’s largest city São Paulo often compared to Wall Street. “They haven’t moved yet. It’s all waiting to happen.”

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/27/corporate-clients-hold-up-to-15-of-assets-on-mercado-bitcoin-exchange-exec-says

Dubai Royal-Backed Fund MGX Buys 15% of TikTok U.S. Business in Major Stake Deal: Report

MGX, a fund backed by Dubai’s ruling family, will take a 15% stake in TikTok’s U.S. business as part of a restructuring meant to increase American control of the popular video app, the Washington Post reported Friday.

The investment, led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, brings MGX into a partnership with Oracle, the database giant co-founded by Larry Ellison. Together, the two will hold roughly 45% of TikTok’s U.S. entity. With other U.S. investors involved, American companies are expected to own more than 65% of the business.

TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, will remain a significant shareholder, keeping a 19.9% stake in the U.S. arm, according to the Guardian. That arrangement appears designed to ease concerns in Washington, where President Trump has repeatedly pressed for tighter scrutiny of the app’s ownership and data practices.

MGX’s role in the deal adds another layer of intrigue. Earlier this year, the fund bought $2 billion worth of USD1, a stablecoin launched by Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial. The token is backed by U.S. Treasuries, cash and equivalents, and is pitched as a way for people to access financial services without banks. MGX has already deployed USD1 in its investment in crypto exchange Binance, signaling its willingness to use the stablecoin in large-scale deals.

For MGX, the TikTok stake provides a high-profile foothold in the U.S. social media market, where the platform’s influence over culture and advertising continues to expand.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/26/dubai-royal-backed-fund-mgx-buys-15-of-tiktok-u-s-business-in-major-stake-deal-report

Near $30M Ether Wipeout on Hyperliquid Stands Out as Crypto Market Sees $1B in Liquidation

An ether (ETH) trade on Hyperliquid turned out to be the biggest liquidation hit in the past 24 hours as crypto traders took on more than $1.19 billion in leveraged positions amid a market downturn.

Longs made up nearly 90% of the overall wipeout, per CoinGlass, leaving over 260,000 traders losing money and exposing the market’s bullish overcrowding.

Ether bore the brunt with $448 million in liquidations, followed by bitcoin (BTC) at $278 million. Solana’s SOL (SOL), XRP (XRP), BNB Chain’s BNB (BNB) and dogecoin (DOGE) all saw tens of millions flushed out.

But the single largest trade closure came on Hyperliquid — a $29.1 million ETH-USD long hit which is indicative of the growing role of decentralized perpetual exchanges in driving liquidations.

Bybit handled the most overall liquidations at $311 million, but Hyperliquid followed closely with $281 million, ahead of Binance’s $243 million.

For a relatively recent protocol that operates fully on-chain with no KYC or regulatory firewalls, Hyperliquid’s share of liquidations points to traders piling risk into perpetual decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in size. A 97% long bias further showed how aggressively users were positioned before the flush.

The wave came as sentiment remains fragile and bitcoin sees volatile price action around the $111,000 mark. Spikes in liquidations are often read as clearing events that pave the way for reversals, but with positioning stretched across majors and high-beta tokens alike, downside risks linger.

Meanwhile, some say projects with strong revenue flows could emerge attractive to traders amid an otherwise risk-off mood.

“While crypto markets are down, capital is still rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins, with perpetual decentralized exchanges (Perp DEXs) like Hyperliquid and Aster leading the charge,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

“We expect altcoins to slowly grind upward as investors seek projects that can decouple from macro pressures and continue to grow based on their own utility,” Ruck added.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/26/near-usd30m-ether-wipeout-on-hyperliquid-stands-out-as-crypto-market-sees-usd1b-in-liquidation

XRP Slides 6% as Bitcoin Drop Slashes Bullish Sentiment

XRP’s push above $2.90 collapsed under heavy selling on Sept. 25, with a $277 million volume spike hammering price back to $2.75.

The move erased more than $18 billion in market value over the past week and confirmed fresh resistance at $2.80, leaving traders bracing for a test of $2.70 support.

News Background

• XRP slid 5.83% over the Sept. 25–26 session, falling from $2.92 to $2.75 on heavy institutional selling.
• A sharp rejection at $2.80 during the 17:00 hour triggered a 276.77 million volume spike — more than 2.5x the 24-hour average.
• Despite SEC approval of the first U.S. XRP ETF, optimism has been offset by Powell’s warnings on valuations and rising Treasury yields.
• Over the past week, XRP’s market value has contracted by $18.94 billion, down 10.22%, breaking below the $3.00 psychological threshold.

Price Action Summary

XRP traded between $2.92 and $2.74 — a 6.3% intraday range — before closing near $2.75.
• Sellers dominated after $2.80 rejection on extreme volume, creating a distribution zone that capped further upside.
• Subsequent recovery attempts stalled around $2.81–$2.82, confirming fresh resistance clusters.
• Final hour saw a brief 1.09% bounce from $2.75 to $2.78, driven by concentrated flows between 00:50–00:57 on volumes above 3 million per candle.
• Short-term support is now seen at $2.75–$2.77, with downside risk toward $2.70 if breached.

Technical Analysis

• Range: $0.18 (6.3%) between $2.92 high and $2.74 low.
• Resistance: $2.80 initial rejection; $2.81–$2.82 clusters formed on failed retests.
• Support: $2.75 zone defended in late session; $2.70 psychological level next watch.
• Volume: 276.77M at 17:00 vs. 108.42M daily average.
• Pattern: High-volume rejection signals distribution. Short-term consolidation near $2.77 suggests indecision before next move.

What Traders Are Watching

• Whether $2.75 holds through Asia session or breaks toward $2.70.
• ETF optimism versus real money outflows — sell-the-news pattern remains in play.
• Whale flows after $800M in transfers over past week; positioning risk if selling resumes.
• Macro overhang: Powell’s hawkish tone, Treasury yields climbing, Fed cut expectations capped.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/26/xrp-slides-6-as-bitcoin-drop-slashes-bullish-sentiment

KuCoin Faces $14M Canadian Action in Registration, Money Laundering Controls Dispute

KuCoin is appealing a Canadian enforcement action in which the exchange was accused of failing to register as a money-services business and failing to maintain proper defenses against money laundering, a case that led to a penalty of more than $19 million ($14 million U.S.).

That unusually large penalty from the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) was imposed after finding that Seychelles-based Peken Global Limited, operating as KuCoin, didn't report large crypto transactions and didn't flag suspicious transactions that may have involved money laundering or terrorist financing, the agency said on Thursday.

The regulator said KuCoin didn't report large transactions on almost 3,000 occasions from 2021 to 2024 and in 33 instances "failed to report financial transactions where there were reasonable grounds to suspect that the transactions were related to the commission or the attempted commission of a money laundering or a terrorist activity financing."

KuCoin said it submitted an appeal with the Federal Court of Canada "on both substantive and procedural grounds."

"While KuCoin respects the decision-making process and remains committed to regulatory compliance and transparency, it disagrees with both the finding that KuCoin is a Foreign Money Services Business and the penalty imposed, which KuCoin maintains is excessive and punitive in nature," the company said in a Thursday statement.

This FINTRAC penalty represents the bulk of the agency's fines in the past year, it noted, having imposed fines 23 times for a total of $25 million in that period. KuCoin's alleged violations were said to have been serious and, in the case of the failure to report suspicious transactions, "severe."

KuCoin has been penalized in various jurisdictions in similar cases, including one from the Ontario Securities Commission in 2023. In the U.S., the company settled with the Department of Justice earlier this year, paying nearly $300 million, pleading guilty to an unlicensed-operations charge and agreeing to stay out of the country.

Read More: South Korea Plans Sanctions Against KuCoin, Others: Report

source https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/25/kucoin-faces-usd14m-canadian-action-in-registration-money-laundering-controls-dispute

Crypto Millionaires Surge 40%, Led by Bitcoin's Rise, as Market Hits $3.3 Trillion

The global population of crypto millionaires has reached 241,700, up 40% in the past year, according to the Crypto Wealth Report 2025 by Henley & Partners.

The surge coincides with a broader rally that lifted total digital asset market capitalization to $3.3 trillion in June, a 45% increase year-on-year, the report, featuring data from global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth, said.

Bitcoin remains the main driver of wealth creation in the sector.

Holders with portfolios above $1 million in BTC climbed 70% to 145,100 year-over-year. At the upper end, 450 individuals now hold at least $100 million in crypto, while 36 billionaires control even larger stakes.

The report points to a shift in how digital assets are used, with Bitcoin increasingly treated as collateral rather than a speculative play. This evolution, observers say, is transforming the token into the base layer of a parallel financial system.

"Bitcoin is becoming the foundation of a parallel financial system, where [it] is not merely an investment for speculation on fiat price appreciation, but the base currency for accumulating wealth.” Philipp A. Baumann, founder of Z22 Technologies, said in the report.

Bordeless wealth

Crypto’s decentralized nature is also redrawing patterns of global wealth. Analysts note that investors are pursuing citizenship and residency programs to navigate regulatory uncertainty while securing access to banking and tax-efficient jurisdictions.

Henley’s annual Crypto Adoption Index ranks Singapore, Hong Kong, the U.S., Switzerland, and the UAE as the top five destinations for digital asset investors.

With over $14 trillion in wealth moving across borders last year, the report argues that crypto’s portability—secured by little more than a seed phrase—marks a fundamental break from centuries of place-based financial systems.

"Today, cryptocurrency has made geography optional — with nothing more than 12 memorized words, an individual can secure a billion dollars in Bitcoin, instantly accessible from Zurich or Zhengzhou alike," said Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/24/crypto-millionaires-surge-40-led-by-bitcoin-s-rise-as-market-hits-usd3-3-trillion

Bitcoin Edges Higher as Gold Bull Takes a Breather

Apparently there's not enough money in markets these days for simultaneous bull moves in gold and its digital counterpart bitcoin (BTC).

To wit, gold has seen what seems like new record highs on a daily basis for the past few weeks. Bitcoin, meanwhile, despite living in a world with the same bullish catalysts — easing monetary policy, ETF inflows, rising corporate adoption — hasn't been able to get out of its own way.

The action suggests bitcoin may not be able to move into a new sustained upswing until investors cool on the yellow metal.

Indeed, gold Wednesday is having a rare day in the red — down 1.5% to $3,759 per ounce — perhaps "allowing" bitcoin to have what seems like an equally rare positive session, up 1.7% to $113,7000.

Longer-term chart tells a different story

While gold and bitcoin may seem to be moving in opposite directions in this stage of the cycle, logic would seem to dictate that both assets — given their appeal as hedges against excessive government spending and inflation — should at least kind of track over longer periods.

That appears to be the case. Year-to-date gold has gained 42% easily outpacing bitcoin's 22%, but at least showing both moving in the same direction. Going back to the start of 2024, gold is higher by 82% against bitcoin's 155% advance.

And since the start of 2023, gold has more than doubled, while bitcoin is up more than six-fold (though that's measured from nearly the bottom of 2022's crypto winter).

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/24/bitcoin-edges-higher-as-gold-bull-takes-a-breather

Asia Morning Briefing: Capital Controls Doom Asia’s Stablecoin Dreams—Except in Hong Kong

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

In the lead-up to Seoul's Korea Blockchain Week, discussions about a Korean Won stablecoin were among the leading narratives.

The idea carries political weight, positioning local currencies as digital alternatives to the U.S. dollar. However, despite the enthusiasm, most Asian currencies are hindered by capital controls that render them unsuitable for global circulation. That leaves the Hong Kong dollar as the region’s only truly usable stablecoin base.

In Korea, a bill to legalize stablecoins is making its way through the country's legislative bodies. Lawmakers are clear that the initiative is not intended to globalize the Won; offshore use is impossible due to Korea's post-1997 rules aimed at preventing capital flight. South America's re-dollarization via USDT is an example of something lawmakers in Korea don't want.

Instead, it's being pitched as a defense of monetary sovereignty against dollar-based tokens. Korea's central bank chief says he's not against Won stablecoins, but has concerns over foreign convertibility.

But the same restrictions that preserve sovereignty also block international utility. Korea’s won cannot circulate offshore without triggering the same risks of capital flight that scarred the economy in 1997.

Without carving out a special jurisdiction or sandbox where such a token could flow freely, effectively mimicking Hong Kong’s SAR status, a KRW stablecoin will remain confined to the domestic market.

The paradox extends to other Asian currencies. Taiwan’s New Taiwan dollar is locked inside its borders. The renminbi is only partially convertible, restricted on the capital account, which is why Beijing relies on the offshore CNH market. In each case, local stablecoin proposals serve a domestic policy agenda, but cannot scale globally.

Hong Kong stands apart. Its dollar is fully convertible, supported by a currency board that pegs it to the U.S. dollar (within a trading band) through extensive reserves.

Capital flows are unrestricted, and the HKD is already widely used internationally in bond markets and for cross-border settlements. A tokenized HKD would be the only Asian stablecoin capable of circulating globally, bridging domestic policy needs with international liquidity.

The irony is that capital controls designed to protect monetary sovereignty ultimately reinforce the dominance of dollar-backed stablecoins. Unless regional governments are willing to liberalize, the HKD remains the only local currency that can plausibly challenge USDT and USDC on a global stage.

But then, what's the point? With its peg, the HKD is a de-facto U.S. dollar stablecoin already.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin is trading flat at $112k as ETF flows turn negative. Investors pulled $363M from BTC ETFs as the week began, according to data curated by SoSoValue.

ETH: ETH is underperforming BTC in the short term as speculative demand softens and risk sentiment weakens, even as long-term drivers like staking and DeFi remain supportive.

Gold: Gold is climbing to fresh highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and demand for a safe haven amid macro uncertainty.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.33% as stocks in the region tracked their U.S. counterparts.

S&P 500: U.S. stock futures held steady Tuesday night after the S&P 500 ended a three-day winning streak and retreated from record highs.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• U.S. CFTC Moves Toward Getting Stablecoins Involved in Tokenized Collateral Push (CoinDesk)
• Morgan Stanley Will Enable Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Trading via E*Trade (Decrypt)
• Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao refutes claim YZi Labs will take on outside capital (The Block)

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/23/asia-morning-briefing-capital-controls-doom-asia-s-stablecoin-dreams-except-in-hong-kong

Tether Looking to Raise Up to $20B, Bringing its Valuation to $500B: Bloomberg

Stablecoin giant Tether is looking to raise between $15 billion and $20 billion for about a 3% stake in the company through a private placement, Bloomberg reported, citing two people familiar with the matter.

The massive raise would bring its valuation to around $500 billion, putting it in the same league as OpenAI and SpaceX, Bloomberg reported. Tether would be issuing new equity, and Cantor Fitzgerald is acting as lead adviser.

Tether's USDT has market cap of around $172.8 billion, making it the largest among stablecoins. Circle, which recently went public in the U.S., is the issuer of USDC, which has the second-largest market cap of $74 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.

The report of the raise comes as Tether recently reported $4.9 billion in net profit in the second quarter and held over $162.5 billion in reserves against $157.1 billion in liabilities. It also holds about $8.9 billion in bitcoin in its reserves.

Bloomberg said that the talks of the deals are in early stages, and the final numbers of the raise could be significantly lower. According to the report, prospective investors have been given access to a data room over the past few weeks to facilitate the deal.

CoinDesk has requested Tether for comments.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/23/tether-looking-to-raise-upto-usd20b-bringing-its-valuation-to-usd500b-bloomberg

OranjeBTC to Become Brazil’s Largest Publicly-Traded Bitcoin Treasury Firm With B3 Listing

Bitcoin-focused Latin American company OranjeBTC is set to go public on Brazil’s B3 exchange in early October with more than $400 million in BTC reserves, making it Brazil’s largest publicly-traded bitcoin treasury firm.

The move, confirmed by local news outlet Brazil Journal and at Mercado Bitcoin’s DAC 2025 conference, will see it go public via a reverse merger with Intergraus, a prep-course provider already listed on the exchange. Once the transaction closes, Oranje will assume Intergraus’ public listing with a roughly 85% free float.

Oranje holds 3,650 bitcoin, roughly six times more than Brazilian fintech Méliuz, the only other major publicly-traded bitcoin treasury firm in the country. The sum would rank Oranje among the top 25 corporate bitcoin holders globally, and the company aims to expand that reserve aggressively, according to local media.

Backing the venture are high-profile crypto investors including Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, bitcoin pioneer Adam Back, trading platform FalconX, and Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego. Institutional players like Off the Chain Capital and ParaFi Capital also participated in the initial round, the report added.

Alongside its treasury play, Oranje plans to launch a financial education platform focused on bitcoin and crypto, using Intergraus’ existing infrastructure.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/23/oranjebtc-to-become-brazil-s-largest-publicly-traded-bitcoin-treasury-firm-with-b3-listing

XRP Forms Downtrend Channel After ETF Selloff, Next Target $2.75

XRP collapsed in one of its heaviest trading days of 2025, tumbling nearly 5% as institutions unloaded into the REX-Osprey ETF debut.

The sell-the-news dynamic erased $11 billion in market value and left the token fighting to defend critical $2.77 support.

News Background

• Inaugural U.S. XRP ETF (REX-Osprey) posted record $37.7 million first-day volume, the largest ETF launch of 2025.
• Whale wallets moved $812 million in tokens between unknown addresses during the session.
• Crypto derivatives saw $1.7 billion in liquidations, with 90% coming from long positions.
• Fed policy pivot looms: September inflation cooled to 2.18%, with markets pricing a 50 bps cut before year-end.
• Bitcoin dominance surged to 57.7% as capital rotated away from altcoins.

Price Action Summary

• XRP crashed from $2.87 to $2.77 in a 24-hour span (Sep 22 03:00–Sep 23 02:00 GMT), a 4.9% drop across a $0.14 range.
• Flash crash at 06:00 GMT saw price plunge from $2.87 to $2.77 on 656.1M volume (6x daily avg of 105M).
• Resistance hardened at $2.87 during repeated intraday rejection.
• Recovery peaked at $2.86 by 13:00 GMT before stalling.
• Afternoon consolidation held $2.83–$2.87 before sellers regained control.
• Final hour decline took price from $2.85 to $2.83 (-0.7%), leaving XRP at $2.83 close.

Technical Analysis

• Support: $2.77 critical floor from flash crash; secondary level $2.82 flagged for retest.
• Resistance: Heavy supply zone at $2.87, with lower highs forming downtrend channel.
• Volume: 656.1M in crash vs 105M avg confirms institutional dumping.
• Trend: Lower highs at $2.856 and lower lows at $2.83 establish short-term bearish channel.
• Indicators: Momentum skewed bearish, with breakdown risk toward $2.75–$2.70 if $2.82 fails.

What Traders Are Watching

• Can $2.77 support survive a second test after the flash crash?
• ETF flows: Will day-two demand stabilize price or confirm a sell-the-news event?
• Whale wallet behavior after $812M moved during session.
• Fed’s rate cut path and its impact on dollar liquidity.
• BTC dominance at 57.7% — rotation pressure on altcoins likely persists.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/23/xrp-forms-downtrend-channel-after-etf-selloff-next-target-usd2-75

Asia Morning Briefing: DePIN Flight Tracker Wingbits Lands Korean Air as First Major Airline Partner

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

Korean Air has signed a research agreement with Stockholm-based Wingbits to supply real-time ADS-B data for the airline’s ACROSS air traffic coordination system.

The deal gives the carrier’s R&D division access to coverage across Korea’s Incheon FIR, North America and Europe as it tests how drones, cargo aircraft and eventually eVTOL taxis will share crowded skies.

Wingbits runs a decentralized network of cryptographically secured ADS-B (real-time data for flight information) receivers, rewarding contributors in tokens for placing hardware in optimal locations.

The DePIN startup previously closed a $5.6 million round in January, led by Bullish Capital. Bullish is the parent company of CoinDesk.

“All of aviation relies on this data to some extent, and it’s a really big and profitable market,” co-founder Robin Wingårdh told CoinDesk in an interview during Korea Blockchain Week. “It was just kind of weird that all these people do it for free, while three out of four networks were acquired for hundreds of millions and nothing went back to the community.”

Incentives, Wingårdh said, are what separate Wingbits from rivals.

“If you properly incentivize, you actually get people to put receivers where they matter, on a roof, at a business, or even renting space in a high-demand area," he continued. "And on average, we see more than twice the coverage per antenna versus the competition, simply because the incentive is there.”

For Korean Air, the collaboration is as much about the future as the present. Its R&D division is experimenting with advanced air mobility, and Wingårdh said the demand for low-latency, secure data will only grow.

“Our view on the advanced air mobility segment is really it’s coming, flying taxis, flying cargo, and you’re going to have a lot more objects in the sky," he said. "We don’t believe that there’s currently any infrastructure that can actually function as proper tracking infrastructure for that combination of aviation, advanced mobility, and drones."

The Korean Air partnership marks Wingbits’ first airline collaboration and signals that legacy carriers see value in decentralized infrastructure.

For Wingbits, it’s a test case in moving from crypto-native hype to mainstream aviation, with the long-term bet that blockchain-backed data networks can underpin the next era of urban air mobility.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $112,730. Despite back-to-back ETF inflows totaling over $385M on September 18–19, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to gain momentum, reflecting broader profit-taking and cautious market sentiment.

ETH: Ethereum is trading near $4,200 and has fallen more sharply than Bitcoin in the short term, even as spot ETH ETFs attracted over $260M in net inflows across September 18–19. The pullback highlights how ETH remains more sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and waning speculative demand, though its long-term fundamentals tied to DeFi, staking, and institutional adoption remain intact.

Gold: Gold continues to trade record highs, supported by expectations of further rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risk.

S&P 500: U.S. stock futures were flat Monday night, with Dow and S&P 500 contracts each slipping 0.04% as investors eyed risks at record highs.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• CleanSpark Shares Rise After Getting $100M Bitcoin-Backed Credit From Coinbase Prime (CoinDesk)
• MetaMask’s mUSD stablecoin tops $65 million supply a week after launch (The Block)
• Ethereum Wallet Rainbow Reveals RNBW Token Airdrop—Here's When (Decrypt)

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/23/asia-morning-briefing-wingbits-lands-korean-air-as-first-major-airline-partner

CleanSpark Shares Rise After Getting $100M Bitcoin-Backed Credit From Coinbase Prime

Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark (CLSK) has secured a new $100 million credit facility with Coinbase Prime, giving it access to fresh capital without selling its bitcoin holdings or raising equity.

The shares rose nearly 6% in post-market trading, after the announcement on Monday.

The mining company will use the proceeds for strategic capital expenditures, including expanding CleanSpark’s energy portfolio, scaling its bitcoin mining operations, and investing in high-performance computing (HPC) capabilities, the company said in a press release.

Rather than selling bitcoin to raise cash or selling additional shares of the firm—a move that can dilute the current shareholders—CleanSpark is using the asset as collateral to keep growing while holding on to what it mines.

"Delivering accretive growth using non-dilutive financing is at the core of CleanSpark's capital strategy," said Gary A. Vecchiarelli, CleanSpark's CFO. "Our 'Infrastructure First' strategy has been proven historically and will further enhance shareholder value as we expand into more diversified compute opportunities."

The new raise comes after recent leadership changes hinted at the miner going beyond just mining bitcoin and diversifying into other revenue opportunities. The focus on HPC isn't surprising, as more and more bitcoin miners are pivoting into hosting machines that cater to HPC and artificial intelligence computing, which requires a tremendous amount of energy, in their data centers.

Read more: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/22/cleanspark-shares-rise-after-getting-usd100m-bitcoin-backed-credit-from-coinbase-prime

U.S., U.K. Form Task Force to Align on Crypto and Capital Markets

The U.S. and U.K. have established a joint Transatlantic Taskforce aimed at strengthening cooperation on capital markets and digital assets.

The task force, announced on Sep. 22 by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will bring together officials from HM Treasury, the U.S. Treasury and market regulators across both jurisdictions.

Two of the goals of the task force is to develop approaches to digital asset oversight and explore new opportunities in wholesale digital markets.

The group will report within 180 days through the existing U.K.–U.S. Financial Regulatory Working Group, delivering recommendations shaped in close consultation with private industry, the release said.

“London and New York remain the twin pillars of global finance,” Reeves said, adding that closer alignment is essential as technology reshapes markets. Bessent echoed that sentiment during a Downing Street roundtable, calling the initiative a commitment to ensuring innovation in financial markets “does not stop at borders.”

Crypto at the forefront

While the task force’s remit spans traditional capital markets, digital assets are expected to take center stage.

Officials will look at both short-term measures, such as facilitating cross-border use cases while legislation remains in flux, and long-term strategies for advancing wholesale digital market infrastructure.

“With the creation of a joint U.K.-U.S. task force on capital markets and digital assets, we can expect meaningful developments on both sides of the Atlantic,” Mark Aruliah, head of EMEA policy and regulatory affairs at Elliptic, said in an email.

While noting that the U.S. has “set the pace with a pro-innovation agenda,” Aruliah suggested the task force “signals a strong intent to close that gap and position the U.K. more competitively.”

More broadly, the firm described the collaboration as a validation of the digital assets industry itself: “Structured collaboration of this kind will strengthen a shared commitment to higher standards of transparency and accountability, and may establish a global benchmark if other jurisdictions follow suit.”

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/22/u-s-u-k-form-task-force-to-align-on-crypto-and-capital-markets

Bitcoin Bulls Challenged by Dollar's Doji, XRP MACD Bearish Ahead of Fed Speak & PCE Inflation

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

DXY vs BTC

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered its first interest rate rate cut since December, while signaling more easing in the coming months. Yet, despite this dovish move, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against major currencies, finished the week with a dragonfly doji on the weekly chart – a classic bullish reversal signal suggesting a USD rally ahead.

The dragonfly doji gets its name from its distinctive “T” shape, which resembles the delicate wings of a dragonfly or the blade of a bamboo-copter toy. This pattern forms when the open, high, and close prices are nearly identical, accompanied by a long lower shadow that reflects a sharp price decline quickly reversed by buying pressure. The DXY initially fell on the news of the Fed rate cut, briefly dipping below the July low of 96.37, only to bounce back and end the week largely unchanged at 97.65, supported by resilience in U.S. Treasury yields.

The appearance of the dragonfly doji after a notable downtrend and at critical support, as in DXY's case, suggests an impending bullish shift in the market trend.

Traditionally, dollar strength corresponds with weakness in dollar-denominated and broader risk assets, setting an interesting stage for the week ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC) mirrored this theme in the week ended Sept. 21, forming an indecisive Doji candle at the critical resistance marked by the trendline from 2017 and 2021 bull market peaks. Given that this Doji appeared at such a significant long-term trendline, it leans more bearish, signaling hesitation among bulls to lead the price action and renewed selling pressure from the key hurdle.

On the daily chart, BTC are teasing a move below the Ichimoku cloud, with the trendline drawn from Sept. 1 lows breached, implying potential downside risk.

The first line of support is seen at $114,473, the 50-day simple moving average, followed by Sept. 1 lows near $107,300. The past week's high of $118,000 needs to be overcome to weaken the bearish case.

Ether range breakdown

Ether (ETH) faces its own technical dilemma; it hovers below the lower end of the contracting triangle pattern on the daily chart, suggesting renewed seller dominance and potential for deeper losses. The breakdown has put focus on the Aug. 20 low of $4,062 followed by the psychological support of $4,000. The 24-hour high of $4,458 is the level to beat for the bulls.

XRP's MACD flips bearish

Meanwhile, XRP presents a frustrating picture for bulls. Despite the recent debut of an XRP ETF in the U.S. on Thursday, the MACD indicator has crossed bearish on the weekly chart, indicating a renewed downside bias. Price indicates that XRP is slipping back to the upper boundary of a descending triangle on the daily chart. Although a tentative breakout occurred last week, it failed to ignite a sustained rally, leaving traders cautious.

Focus on the Fed speak and PCE

This week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and nine other officials are scheduled to speak, with markets likely to closely watch the same for cues on the interest rate trajectory. While the Fed cut rates last week, signaling more easing ahead, Powell threw cold water over optimism by stressing a data-dependent stance.

President Donald Trump appointee Stephen Miran will also speak of his independence as a policymaker, having dissented in favor of an outsized 50 basis point rate cut last week.

On Friday, the U.S. core PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled to be released. According to Amberdata, the data is expected to show that inflation rose 2.7% year-on-year, with core jumping 2.9% in August, marking a slight uptick from the previous month.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/22/bitcoin-bulls-challenged-by-dollar-s-dragonfly-doji-xrp-macd-bearish-ahead-of-fed-speak-and-pce-inflation

Asia Morning Briefing: China’s Car, America’s Currency — Why Stablecoins Keep the Dollar in the Driver’s Seat

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

On the streets of Bolivia, an advertisement for a bright green BYD Dolphin Mini is plastered across a billboard.

The irony is hard to miss: a Chinese electric vehicle, the symbol of Beijing’s export strength in the world's emerging markets, is moving off lots in a BRICS country, but it is paid for in USDT – which is backed by the very treasuries China is dumping.

China has spent years pushing de-dollarization in Latin America, framing it as South–South solidarity and economic independence from Washington. Bolivia now settles about 10% of its trade in yuan, Brazil has renewed a RMB 190 billion ($26 billion) swap line, and Argentina taps renminbi liquidity to avoid default.

Yet the reality is different for retail consumers. China still wins on exports, but loses influence over the unit of account. This creates a strange situation where Chinese goods fuel dollar (USDT) demand rather than RMB demand.

For merchants, dealers, and consumers in inflation-strapped or capital-controlled economies, USDT offers stability, speed, and liquidity that the yuan still cannot match. After all, the yuan, like many of the world's currencies, isn't designed to be used offshore. It's antithetical to the People's Bank of China's monetary policy.

China’s exports dominate Latin American markets, soy, lithium, buses, and EVs, but as the advertisement shows, it fuels demand for USDT, not RMB.

Despite the talk of de-dollarization, Tether’s crypto-dollar is conquering emerging markets, while Beijing’s central bank digital currency pilots remain confined at home. Stablecoins deliver what CBDCs and yuan swap lines cannot: speed, liquidity, and global trust.

The longer this persists, the harder it will be for China to match trade power with monetary influence. De-dollarization in Latin America is happening, but not in the way Beijing intended.

Instead of RMB zones of settlement, the region is seeing the rise of crypto-dollar rails: a grassroots re-dollarization that entrenches the greenback’s dominance under a new digital form. It's tough to shake the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

For all the talk of CBDCs or BRICS currency, the projects have failed to launch: trade on the ground still runs through USDT, the digital dollar that dominates emerging markets.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $114.5K. The price of BTC is relatively flat, with a slight downward trend. on the day. Key drivers include renewed interest from institutional investors, rate cut expectations in the U.S., and general macro sentiment toward risk assets. Slight resistance around the ~$115,000‑$117,000 level appears to be holding, according to the CoinDesk Market Insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading at $4400. Like BTC, ETH is also slightly soft in intraday trading. Some of the pressure comes from weak momentum and trying to reclaim and hold previous highs. ETF inflow ended the week in the green with $556M.

Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs, driven by weakening of the U.S. dollar, expectations for Fed rate cuts, high central bank demand, and inflation concerns.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.28%, after China held its loan prime rates steady and investors tracked Wall Street’s gains.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Prediction Markets and DAOs Are Cousins, Says Syndicate Co-Founder (Decrypt)
• Low-risk DeFi, not memecoins, can best sustain Ethereum’s economy, co-founder Vitalik Buterin says (The Block)
• State of Crypto: ETF Listings Became Easier (CoinDesk)

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/22/asia-morning-briefing-paying-for-a-chinese-car-in-usdt-shows-why-digital-dollars-rule

Coinbase CEO: 'We Want to Become a Super App and Provide All Types of Financial Services'

Brian Armstrong, a co-founder and the CEO of Coinbase (COIN), said in an interview on Friday that Coinbase’s long-term goal is to be a financial “super app,” offering crypto alongside a broad range of financial services beyond traditional banking.

Armstrong, speaking on Fox Business’ "The Claman Countdown," told Liz Claman that momentum in Congress is the strongest he has seen, with lawmakers from both parties advancing frameworks for the industry. A move that boosts Coinbase's momentum towards building the super app.

He explained how his company wants to approach the buildout during the interview.

Coinbase intends to integrate services people typically get from banks and fintechs and deliver them on crypto rails. He pointed to a recently launched Coinbase credit card that pays 4% back in bitcoin as an early example and argued card networks’ 2%–3% swipe fees show why payments need an overhaul.

The longer-term target, he said, is a comprehensive application that handles spending, savings, payments and investing, not just trading.

Armstrong spelled out the ambition explicitly: “We want to be a bank replacement for people, we want to be their primary financial account,” adding that Coinbase aims to “provide all types of financial services,” not only crypto. He agreed with the framing that this amounts to becoming a super app and said crypto rails make that feasible by offering faster, cheaper settlement.

Washington and big banks

According to Armstrong, the path to the super app starts with lawmakers.

He pointed to the recent passage of the “Genius Act,” which established rules for stablecoins, and a separate market-structure bill now under debate in the Senate that would define how tokens like bitcoin and ether are regulated.

“This freight train has left the station,” Armstrong said, describing growing bipartisan interest in putting clear rules on the books. He argued that clarity could resolve years of conflict with regulators under the previous administration, who often treated crypto tokens as unregistered securities.

However, despite lawmakers' historical push to help set a regulatory framework, one last hurdle needs to be cleared: The lobbying by big banks.

Some institutions, he explained, have sought to restrict rewards programs on stablecoins, claiming they would undermine the traditional payments business. Armstrong dismissed those concerns, saying crypto rewards are no different from airline miles or credit card points.

“American consumers want to earn more money on their money — that should be totally allowed,” he said.

While he criticized lobbying efforts to block competition, Armstrong also stressed that Coinbase partners with major banks such as JPMorgan and PNC to provide custody and payments services, showing parts of the sector are embracing crypto rails.

Staying ahead of rivals

While building a super app is a monumental task that has gained momentum, Coinbase still needs to look out for rivals who might be fighting for market share.

However, Armstrong isn't worried; rather, he welcomes the competition.

With new exchanges entering the U.S. market, including platforms launched by Gemini and others, Armstrong said Coinbase benefits from its head start. He argued that a thriving ecosystem is essential for mainstream adoption, and Coinbase’s advantage comes from trust.

According to Armstrong, Coinbase now stores more crypto than any other provider, which encourages customers to use its broader suite of services from trading to payments. He said the ambition is not just to facilitate transactions but to eventually become the platform people use as their “primary financial account.”

Armstrong’s “primary account” vision echoes remarks from Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, who asked at the All-In Summit 2025, “Can we be your comprehensive financial platform?” and outlined banking and wealth features as steps toward that goal, according to a report by Business Insider published on Sept. 15. The comparison suggests multiple U.S. fintechs are angling to expand beyond trading into everyday finance.

Bitcoin outlook

The interview also touched on the broader market.

Armstrong avoided short-term predictions but said he sees “a good chance” that bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.

He cited three major tailwinds: regulatory clarity, the creation of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve, and heavy inflows into the newly launched bitcoin ETFs, 80% of which rely on Coinbase for custody.

He likened bitcoin’s role in portfolios to a hybrid of gold and equities, noting that many investors now view it as both a hedge against uncertainty and a long-term growth asset.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/20/coinbase-ceo-we-want-to-become-a-super-app-and-provide-all-types-of-financial-services

Gold vs Bitcoin: Performance Through the Lens of Money Supply

Gold has been one of the strongest performing assets in 2025, rising 38% year to date, outpacing bitcoin23% advance. It's no secret, though, that bitcoin has done wildly better than gold (and pretty much everything else) over its short lifespan.

A check of the two popular inflation-resistant assets against a broad measure of U.S. money supply (known as M2) yields further insight about their performances.

Adjusted for M2 growth, gold — despite its recent strong run — remains below its 2011 peak and roughly the same level as it was in 1975. The all-time high for gold against M2 occurred in 1980.

Bitcoin tells a different story. Each bull cycle has seen BTC hit a record versus M2, including last month when bitcoin touched both an absolute all-time high as well as a new high relative to money supply.

This contrast could highlight the different roles of the two assets. Gold continues to serve as a long-standing hedge and a stabilizer in portfolios, while bitcoin’s behavior shows how new forms of money can respond differently to an era of rapid monetary expansion.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/21/gold-vs-bitcoin-performance-through-the-lens-of-money-supply

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory.

From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million.

Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”

Polymarket's longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially.

This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi's users are trading more often, while Polymarket's positions tend to sit.

Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again.

It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time.

Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval: The Information

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/20/kalshi-outpaces-polymarket-in-prediction-market-volume-amid-surge-in-u-s-trading

Internet Computer Bets Big on AI as Crypto Markets Play Catch-Up

The Internet Computer (ICP), a blockchain project that has sought to differentiate itself from rivals, is doubling down on its pitch as the go-to network for on-chain artificial intelligence (AI).

This could be the beginning of a new tech stack - one in which AI, not humans, becomes the primary developer of applications, according to Dominic Williams, founder of Internet Computer developer Dfinity.

Williams argued that while crypto prices remain driven largely by market mechanics - treasury operations, liquidity games and speculation - the underlying technology will eventually force a reckoning in an interview with CoinDesk.

“In the long run, markets begin to reflect realities on the ground,” he said. “But as yet you’re not seeing what’s happening with Internet Computer reflected in ICP’s price.”

Running AI on-Chain

The Internet Computer first demonstrated neural networks running as smart contracts in April last year, starting with image classification and later facial recognition, Williams said.

While those were relatively simple models compared to large language models - the kind that power AI tools like ChatGPT and Gemini - they were proof of concept: that AI can run natively on a blockchain. No other network has achieved this, Williams pointed out, despite the chatter about “decentralized AI.”

Where others rely on off-chain infrastructure like Amazon Web Services, ICP seeks to integrate the full AI development and execution stack on-chain. Williams describes this as “a self-writing internet” - a system where users describe what they want, and an AI delivers it as a working application, hosted directly on Internet Computer.

The bigger idea, Williams said, is that AI itself will replace much of today’s developer workflow. Instead of humans writing code, configuring databases and maintaining servers, an AI could spin up applications instantly, update them continuously and ensure resilience through blockchain-based guarantees.

This reframes the blockchain not just as a settlement layer for tokens, but as the optimal environment for AI-generated applications. ICP’s design, with features like “reverse gas” - the model where developers pay for the computational costs of their applications, rather than requiring end users to pay a transaction fee - removes the need for firewalls or database migrations that plague traditional infrastructure.

“AI is developing these apps hundreds of times faster than humans could,” Williams said. “And because there are no system admins standing by, you need the guardrails only blockchain can provide.”

Williams pointed to early hackathons where ordinary people used AI on ICP to build apps: from a crowdsourced pothole-mapping platform, to a tool for generating wills and health directives.

The vision is that such tools could proliferate in the millions. Entrepreneurs, small businesses and even NGOs could create customized apps without technical expertise, paying for usage with fiat while crypto tokens underpin the system behind the scenes.

Price Action Still Lagging

Despite these developments, the ICP token has yet to see sustained momentum. It briefly rallied when AI integrations were announced last year, but has since traded more in line with broader market sentiment than with user adoption.

Williams accepts this disconnect but predicts that markets may catch up very soon.

“This could be the first time Web3 actually outcompetes Web2 technologically, without a token incentive in sight,” Williams said. “The shock will be when people realize they can just talk to an AI, and a blockchain app appears at a URL.”

source https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/09/20/internet-computer-bets-big-on-ai-as-crypto-markets-play-catch-up

Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat by 2030

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warned that Bitcoin developers must act to prepare for a possible quantum computing breakthrough that could render the network’s current security measures obsolete.

Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said there’s a “50/50” chance quantum computers will be powerful enough within five years to break the cryptographic protections securing Bitcoin wallets.

“We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme,” he said.

The concern stems from the possibility of quantum machines running algorithms like Shor’s, which could crack the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm currently protecting Bitcoin private keys. That would make it possible to forge transactions and compromise wallets, an existential risk for the network.

Community pushback

Bitcoin’s design doesn’t make such a change easy. A migration to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork, a highly contentious and technically complex process that would need widespread support across the network and would not be backward-compatible.

While Yakovenko stressed urgency, others in the crypto community aren’t convinced the threat is near. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, estimated that the technology is still somewhat far away and even making Bitcoin quantum-ready is “relatively simple.”

Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd pointed out earlier on social media that quantum computers “don’t exist” as “the demos running toy problems do not count.” To Luke Dashjr, another Bitcoin Core contributor, quantum isn’t as much of a threat to Bitcoin now as spam and developer corruption, which the community can now address.

Yakovenko argued that advances in artificial intelligence show how quickly lab work can leap into the real world. The moment tech giants like Apple or Google roll out quantum-safe cryptographic stacks, he said, “it’s time to migrate.”

source https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/09/20/solana-s-yakovenko-says-bitcoin-must-upgrade-to-survive-quantum-threat-by-2030

Kevin Durant Recovers Bitcoin Bought at $650, Now Up Over 17,700%, After Nearly a Decade

NBA forward Kevin Durant has access to his bitcoin again, after being locked out of his Coinbase account for nearly a decade. In that time, the price of BTC rose by more than 17,700%.

“We got this fixed. Account recovery complete,” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on X, responding to a viral tweet about Durant’s access issues.

The recovery comes days after Durant and his business partner, Rich Kleiman, discussed the lockout at CNBC’s Game Plan conference. “It’s just a process we haven’t been able to figure out,” Kleiman said. Still, he noted, “bitcoin keeps going up... so, I mean, it’s only benefited us.”

Durant bought bitcoin in 2016 after hearing about it from then-teammates on the Golden State Warriors. At the time, bitcoin traded between $360 and $1,000 and Durant is estimated to have bought at around $650 per coin.

It’s now hovering near $116,000, according to CoinMarketCap data. Neither Durant nor Kleiman disclosed the size of his holdings.

Durant and Kleiman are investors in Coinbase and have promoted the company through their media outlet, Boardroom.

The episode comes amid growing frustration among some Coinbase users, who alleged they’ve faced similar issues retrieving account access or getting help from customer support. Armstrong acknowledged the criticism on social media, saying the company is “putting a big focus” on improving customer support.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/20/kevin-durant-recovers-bitcoin-bought-at-usd650-now-up-over-17-700-after-nearly-a-decade

BitGo Files for IPO With $4.2B in H1 2025 Revenue, $90B in Crypto on Platform

Crypto custodian BitGo has filed its first public S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BTGO.

The filing provides a rare look at the company’s business scale. BitGo generated $4.19 billion in revenue in the first six months of 2025, nearly quadrupling the $1.12 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier.

Profitability, however, tightened: net income for the half-year fell to $12.6 million, down from $30.9 million in the first half of 2024, as rising operating costs weighed on margins.

In 2024, BitGo reported $3.08 billion in revenue and $156.6 million in net income, with $54.1 million attributable to common stockholders.

Based in Palo Alto, BitGo was founded in 2013 and built its reputation by offering cold storage and multi-signature wallets for exchanges, hedge funds, and banks. The firm now manages over $90 billion in cryptocurrency on its platform, from 1.14 million users.

These figures, however, remain concentrated in mostly five cryptocurrencies.

Per the filing: “The value of a majority of our AoP has been, and continues to be, concentrated in a few digital assets held by our clients, including Bitcoin, Sui, Solana, XRP, and Ethereum, which constitute 48.5%, 20.1%, 5.7%, 3.9%, and 3.0% of our AoP [Assets on Platform] as of June 30, 2025, respectively.”

The S-1 also outlines a dual-class share structure, giving Class B shareholders, including co-founder and CEO Mike Belshe, 15 votes per share compared with one vote for Class A stock. That setup ensures Belshe will retain control after the offering, with BitGo qualifying as a “controlled company” under NYSE rules.

BitGo said IPO proceeds would fund technology development, acquisitions, and stock-based compensation while boosting visibility and financial flexibility.

The IPO follows public listing moves from other major companies in the cryptocurrency sector, including Circle, Gemini, and CoinDesk’s parent company Bullish.

source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/20/bitgo-files-for-ipo-with-usd4-2b-in-h1-2025-revenue-usd90b-in-crypto-on-platform