Chart of the Week: '10x Money Multiplier' for Bitcoin Could Take Wall Street by Storm

Adopting Michael Saylor's strategy of buying for the balance sheet has clearly taken off among many publicly traded firms, substantially enriching their stock prices and shareholders.

But what does it mean for the future of the bitcoin price? NYDIG Research crunched the numbers, and the results are striking.

"If we apply a 10x "money multiplier"—a rule of thumb reflecting the historical impact of new capital on bitcoin’s market cap—and divide by the total supply of bitcoin, we arrive at a rough estimate of the potential price impact: a nearly $42,000 increase per bitcoin," NYDIG said in a research report.

To reach this conclusion, the analysts at NYDIG reviewed Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet (3350), Twenty One (CEP), and Semler Scientific's (SMLR) cumulative equity valuation since they adopted the bitcoin buying strategy. This gave the analysts an outline of how much money they could theoretically raise by issuing shares at current stock prices to buy more bitcoin.

If this analysis comes true, the projected price is nearly a 44% increase from the current spot price of $96,000 per bitcoin. If capitalized, Wall Street money managers perhaps wouldn't mind showing this PnL chart to their clients, especially given the current volatility and uncertainty in the market.

"The implication is clear: this 'dry powder' in the form of issuance capacity could have a significant upward effect on bitcoin’s price," NYDIG Research said.

Bitcoin’s limited supply also bodes well for the analysis. Publicly-traded companies already hold 3.63% of bitcoin’s total supply, with the lion’s share of those coins being held by Strategy. Adding private company and government holdings, the total is at 7.48% according to BitcoinTreasuries data.

Demand could also grow further in the near future if the U.S. government finds “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin” for its strategic bitcoin reserve.

Read more: Cantor Skyrockets 130% as Traders FOMO Into the Stock on Bitcoin SPAC Frenzy

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/04/chart-of-the-week-10x-money-multiplier-for-bitcoin-could-take-wall-street-by-storm

‘Like Spitting on a Fire’: Tether CEO Slams EU Deposit Protections Amid Bank Failure Warnings

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino is sounding the alarm on Europe’s financial system, warning that a wave of bank failures could hit the continent in the near future due to the intersection of risky lending and new cryptocurrency rules.

Ardoino, during an interview with the Less Noise More Signal podcast, took aim at the European Union’s regulatory framework for stablecoins, which he said pushes companies like Tether to keep the bulk of their reserves—up to 60%—in uninsured bank deposits.

In his scenario, that could mean holding 6 billion euros of a 10 billion euros-pegged stablecoin in small banks with minimal protection. “The bank insurance in Europe is only 100,000 euros,” he said. “If you have 1 billion euros, that’s like spitting on a fire.”

European banks, like every other bank, operate on a fractional reserve, Ardoino added. “They can lend out 90% of it to people that want to buy a house, start a business, and all of that.” In his hypothetical 6 billion euros scenario, this would mean 5.4 billion euros would be lent out by the bank.

He likened the setup to the lead-up to Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in 2023, when a flood of redemptions exposed the mismatch between deposits and actual liquidity. Ardoino warned that European banks operate under similar fractional reserve models that could unravel under pressure. A 20% redemption event, he estimated, could leave banks short billions.

"As a stablecoin issuer, you go bankrupt — not because of you, but because of the bank. So the bank goes bankrupt and you go bankrupt, and the government would say, ‘Told you so, stablecoins are very dangerous,” Ardoino said.

Regulations in Europe, he added, are made to try to help banks in the bloc and bring them liquidity, but this created “huge systemic risk.” The largest banks in Europe, like UBS, would “not bank stablecoins,” pushing stablecoin issuers to use smaller banks, furthering the risk.

The comments come as Tether plans to launch a U.S.-based stablecoin product, and as the stablecoin issuer keeps investing in various projects outside of the ecosystem, having recently raised its stake in Latin American producer Adecoagro.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/03/like-spitting-on-a-fire-tether-ceo-slams-eu-deposit-protections-amid-bank-failure-warnings

CME Group Crypto Derivatives Volume Soars 129% in April With ETH Leading the Charge

CME Group’s cryptocurrency derivatives market posted a steep increase in trading activity in April, reaching a new average daily volume (ADV) of 183,000 contracts worth $8.9 billion in notional terms, the firm reported.

That marks a 129% jump compared to the same month last year, suggesting growing institutional interest in crypto markets.

Ether led the growth. CME’s ether futures ADV surged 239% to 14,000 contracts, while micro ether futures climbed 165% to 63,000. Micro bitcoin futures followed with a 115% increase to 78,000 contracts.

The CME’s bitcoin and ether futures contracts have a larger notional value, of 5 BTC and 50 ETH, respectively. Micro contracts, meanwhile, enable more precise trading, representing just 0.1 of each cryptocurrency.

The exchange operator had already reported record cryptocurrency derivatives volumes in the first quarter of the year. For the month of April, its overall ADV reached a record 35.9 million contracts, rising 36% year-over-year.

Ether, after significantly underperforming the wider cryptocurrency market, rose just 1.1% over the past 30 days, while the price of bitcoin rose 15.8%. The broader crypto market, measured through the coinDesk 20 (CD20) index, saw a 12.1% rise.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/03/cme-group-crypto-derivatives-volume-soars-129-in-april-with-eth-leading-the-charge

State of Crypto: IRS Departures

The IRS, alongside many other regulators, has been pretty active in the crypto world over recent years. On Friday, two directors left.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

Deferred resignations

The narrative

Over 20,000 IRS employees accepted deferred resignation offers made by the Donald Trump administration, including two directors tasked with overseeing digital assets rulemaking.

Why it matters

Raj Mukherjee and Seth Wilks went on paid administrative leave Saturday, though individuals familiar with the situation told CoinDesk that their departures should not indicate any change in the IRS' approach to crypto rules.

Breaking it down

Wilks, the IRS' executive director of digital asset strategy and development, and Mukherjee, the executive director of the digital assets office, accepted deferred resignation offers and left the IRS on Friday, two individuals told CoinDesk.

They joined thousands of other IRS employees who accepted the offer, which puts them on paid administrative leave until September.

Both of CoinDesk's sources said Wilks and Mukherjee left ahead of expected widespread layoffs at the IRS.

Read more here.

Stories you may have missed

• Inside Movement’s Token-Dump Scandal: Secret Contracts, Shadow Advisers and Hidden Middlemen: CoinDesk's Sam Kessler published a blockbuster investigation into Movement Labs, its recent agreements with a market maker and how its current internal investigation into whether it was misled into signing an agreement which gave that market maker control over a significant number of its tokens came to be.
• Fed Joins OCC, FDIC in Withdrawing Crypto Warnings for U.S. Banks: The Federal Reserve withdrew its crypto guidance advising banks to get pre-approvals before entering crypto activity (and other details).
• TRUMP Coin Jumps 70% on President's Dinner Event for Top Token Holders: The 220 individuals who hold the most TRUMP tokens will be able to attend a dinner with Donald Trump in May. The news sparked a surge in the token's price.
• Trump's Truth Social Mulls Launching Token for Subscriptions in Latest Crypto Push: Truth Social, the social media company owned by Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group, said in a shareholder letter that it was exploring launching a utility token.
• Bitcoin-Friendly Poilievre Loses Seat as Carney's Liberals Win 2025 Election: Canada voted, and the Liberal Party is forming a minority government with Mark Carney staying on as the Prime Minister. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat.
• Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe: Unicoin rejected a settlement negotiation meeting with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CEO Alex Konanykhin told shareholders in a letter.
• Senator and Ex-Bridgewater CEO McCormick Invests More in Bitcoin as Bill in Works: Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick, who won his seat in last year's election and now sits on the Senate Banking Committee, disclosed investing up to $450,000 in Bitwise's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
• New SEC Chief Atkins Says Agency Doesn't Have to Wait to Impose Crypto Policy: Paul Atkins, who was sworn in as SEC chair last week, said the agency was considering special-purpose broker dealers and custody policies at the latest crypto roundtable hosted by the agency, and that it may not need to wait for new laws to act.
• FBI Says Americans Lost $9.3B to Crypto Scams in 2024: The FBI's latest Internet Crime Complaint Center report said Americans lost $9.3 billion to crypto crimes last year, a 66% year-over-year rise. Total losses added up to $16.6 billion, and the overall year-over-year increase was 33%.

DOJ's mixers

Prosecutors and defense attorneys in the Department of Justice's case against the developers of Samourai Wallet filed a joint memo asking the federal judge overseeing the case to pause it for a few weeks while the DOJ considers a request from the defense to drop it entirely.

An attorney for Roman Storm, asked if the Tornado Cash developer's team had made a similar request, declined to comment.

This same week, a federal judge ruled that the U.S. Treasury Department cannot sanction Tornado Cash again, saying the Office of Foreign Asset Control did "not suggest they will not sanction Tornado Cash again, and they may seek to 'reenact precisely the same [designation] in the future.'"

Last month, Leah Moushey, an attorney with Miller & Chevalier, told CoinDesk that the judge may decide to reject OFAC's argument that the case was moot because of previous cases where agencies tried to keep the ability to redesignate someone after a court case was resolved.

The judge indeed appeared to buy into that view in his ruling.

This week

Tuesday

• 14:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET) The House Financial Services Committee held a subcommittee hearing titled "Hearing Entitled: Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity."

Thursday

• 19:00 UTC (3:00 p.m. ET) Avraham Eisenberg, who was arrested and tried for his $110 million exploit of Mango Markets, was sentenced to just over four years in prison after pleading guilty to possession of child sexual abuse material. During the sentencing hearing, the federal judge overseeing the case said he was open to a retrial on the Mango Markets-related charges.

Elsewhere:

• (The New York Times) The Times dug into Donald Trump's entry and deepening connections into the crypto industry.
• (The Washington Post) The Post published a list of the top donors to Trump's inauguration fund. Included in this list: Ripple Labs ($4.9 million donated), Robinhood Markets ($2 million), Fred Ehrsam, Circle, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Galaxy Digital, Ondo Finance, Kraken and Solana Labs ($1 million each). Several of these companies have since filed to go public, seen the SEC drop lawsuits and investigations against them or announced partnerships with Trump-affiliated businesses.
• (Politico) The Senate is likely to vote on stablecoin legislation before the end of May, Majority Leader John Thune said at a Republican conference lunch.
• (The New York Times) The Times also published a deep dive into Tether and its own deepening ties to Washington, D.C.
• (Reuters) North Korean employees set up corporate entities in the U.S. to target crypto firms.
• (The New York Times) This is a very bonkers story of some folks who stole some crypto. Just read it.
• (Politico) This is a fascinating read by Politico's Victoria Guida about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's experience and views.
• (404 Media) Researchers claiming to be part of the University of Zurich set up a "large-scale experiment in which they secretly deployed AI-powered bots into a popular debate subreddit" to see whether AI would change people's minds. These bots used fake backstories and made over 1,700 comments. Reddit said it was issuing "formal legal demands" to the researchers in response.
• (The New York Times) Roger Ver, i.e. "Bitcoin Jesus," hired Roger Stone to try and lobby for legal changes that might help Ver, who is accused of tax charges.
• (Semafor) A number of prominent venture capitalists and tech executives, including crypto company executives, have private group chats that Semafor reports show a growing political divide.
• (Wired) Spain and Portugal suffered a massive blackout earlier this week. Wired dug into some of the technical issues at play.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

source https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/05/03/state-of-crypto-irs-departures

IRS' Crypto Leads Are Leaving the Agency After Accepting DOGE Deals

The IRS lost two key directors working on crypto initiatives, Seth Wilks and Raj Mukherjee, on Friday after they accepted deferred resignation offers directed by the Department of Government Efficiency.

Wilks and Mukherjee, who both went to the IRS from the crypto industry, are technically still employees with the IRS for the next few months but they are on paid administrative leave as of Friday afternoon, two people familiar with the situation told CoinDesk. President Donald Trump's administration, through DOGE, offered deferred resignations to a wide array of federal employees earlier this year.

Wilks, who was previously a vice president at TaxBit, and Mukherjee, who was previously ConsenSys and Binance.US' head of tax, both joined the IRS Digital Asset Initiative in February 2024, and were tasked with helping the IRS build a better approach to crypto taxation, including leading the agency’s efforts to build reporting, compliance and enforcement programs for crypto and coordinating with the industry. They worked on an updated 1099-DA tax form shared last summer to aid U.S. persons with filing taxes tied to digital asset transactions.

The pair also oversaw parts of the agency's efforts to draft tax rules for the crypto industry.

The IRS finalized one such rule, imposing certain data collection requirements on decentralized finance (DeFi) brokers, in the waning days of the former Joe Biden administration. This rule was overturned by Congress earlier this year under the Congressional Review Act in a joint resolution signed by Trump.

Wilks was the IRS' executive director of digital asset strategy and development, while Mukherjee was the executive director of the digital assets office.

Both people who spoke to CoinDesk noted that the two officials had accepted voluntary buyouts but that these deferred resignations came ahead of expected cuts to IRS staff.

More than 20,000 IRS employees signed up for the deferred resignation program, the New York Times reported last month, with these employees being put on administrative leave through September.

source https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/05/02/irs-crypto-leads-are-leaving-the-agency-after-accepting-doge-deals

Strategy Raising Another $21B to Buy Bitcoin, Posts Large Q1 Loss on BTC Price Decline

Disclaimer: The analyst who co-wrote this piece owns shares of Strategy (MSTR).

Strategy (MSTR) reported a first-quarter 2025 loss of $16.49 after posting a $5.9 billion writedown on its bitcoin stack thanks to a sizable decline in the price of BTC during the year's first three months.

Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company, though, shows no signs of slowing its pace of bitcoin acquisitions. Having used up nearly all of its previous $21 billion common stock offering with its most recent BTC buys last week, the company alongside earnings announced a fresh $21 billion at-the-market offering.

Turning to its software business, revenue for the quarter fell 3.6% to $111.1 million from $115.2 million the year before. Subscription services revenue for the quarter came in at $37.1 million, compared with $23.0 million in the year prior.

During the quarter, Strategy achieved an 11.0% "BTC Yield", reflecting growth in bitcoin (BTC) holdings relative to diluted shares outstanding. The "BTC $ Gain" for the quarter was around $4.1 billion, moving the company closer toward its target of a $10 billion gain for the year.

The company lifted its long-term target for BTC Yield to 25% from 15% and for BTC $ Gain to $15 billion from $10 billion.

Shares of the company are trading 27% higher year-to-date. Bitcoin is trading around $96,547, about 2.5% higher over the past 24 hours.

Including April purchases, the company holds 553,555 bitcoin acquired for $37.9 billion or $68,459 each. That stack is worth roughly $53 billion at the current price.

“Our capital markets strategy continues to grow our Bitcoin holdings while delivering superior shareholder value. With over 70 public companies worldwide now adopting a Bitcoin treasury standard, we are proud to be at the forefront in pioneering this space.” Phong Le, president and CEO of Strategy, said in a statement.

Shares are marginally higher in after hours trading.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/01/strategy-raising-another-21b-to-buy-bitcoin-posts-large-q1-loss-on-btc-price-decline

Litecoin Surges 7% as SEC Likely to Approve Spot ETF with 90% Odds: Analyst

Litecoin (LTC) price surged more than 7% on Thursday, outperforming the broader market gauge CoinDesk 20 Index, which climbed about 4%.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas reports that spot Litecoin ETF approval chances have surged to 90%, with a decisive deadline of October 2nd that could dramatically broaden LTC's institutional investor base and potentially catalyze significant price appreciation.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• LTC-USD exhibited significant volatility with a 7.51% range ($81.82-$88.03), establishing strong support around $84.00, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model.
• Price action formed an ascending channel with successful reclamation of the $86.00 level in the most recent 48 hours.
• Strong buying interest appeared during the recovery phase, with accumulation at key Fibonacci retracement levels.
• Current momentum suggests potential continuation toward $88.50 resistance, with $85.50 serving as validation support.
• In the last 100 minutes of trading, LTC recovered from mid-$86 range to above $87.19 after forming a higher low at $86.36.
• Particularly strong buying interest occurred during 14:14-14:17 UTC period when LTC reclaimed the $87.00 psychological level.
• The final hour showed increasing momentum with consecutive higher highs and higher lows, closing at $87.19 just below $87.25 resistance.
• A bullish price structure combined with declining selling pressure suggests potential continuation toward $88.00 if $87.00 in support holds.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

External References:

• Cryptopolitan, Litecoin Price Prediction 2025-2031: Will LTC Recover to $200 Soon?, published April 30, 2025.
• Bitcoinist, Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross as MVRV Ratio Builds Momentum – Is a Breakout Coming?, published April 7, 2025.
• Invezz, Solana and Litecoin ETF Approval Odds Are Very High, Says Bloomberg Analyst Balchunas, published April 30, 2025.
• BitcoinWorld, Litecoin ETF and Solana ETF Approval Odds Skyrocket: Bloomberg Analysts Predict Astonishing 90% Chance, published April 30, 2025.
• Coinpedia, Litecoin, Solana, XRP Among Top Crypto ETFs Set for 2025 Approval, published April 30, 2025.

source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/01/litecoin-surges-7-as-sec-likely-to-approve-spot-etf-with-90-odds-analyst